Polar Opposite Polls

David Jarman, The Numerologist at Salon.com, has a post today about Arlen Specter's chances of getting re-elected this year that confirms our thoughts about the polling at this point:

Arlen Specter is stuck in a deep hole as he seeks a sixth term in the U.S. Senate. No, wait -- he’s actually in decent shape, running ahead of his potential Republican opponent. Both of these statements are actually supported by the numbers. It just depends which pollster you believe.

Jarman compares the results of the "likely" versus "registered" voters polled by Rassmussen and Quinnipiac, and then throws in F&M's poll for good measure. F&M seems to confirm the Ras and Quinn polls:

F&M offered both likely voter and registered voter models, and found Specter leading Toomey 44-40 percent among the broad pool of registered voters, and Toomey ahead of Specter 44-34 percent among the narrower likely voter pool.

Democrats need to be looking at these polls as they head into the primary voting booth to choose between Specter and Sestak. If ever a primary was about electability, this one is it.