Monday, February 8, 2010

Pennsylvania Represented by Race and Income


One of the more interesting articles I've read recently was from Annie Lowrey over at the Washington Post, where she asks, "[W]hat if the 100-member Senate were designed to mirror the overall U.S. population -- and were based on statistics rather than state lines?"

What she finds, based on income, is very interesting:
Based on Census Bureau data, five senators would represent Americans earning between $100,000 and $1 million individually per year, with a single senator working on behalf of the millionaires (technically, it would be two-tenths of a senator). Eight senators would represent Americans with no income. Sixteen would represent Americans who make less than $10,000 a year, an amount well below the federal poverty line for families. The bulk of the senators would work on behalf of the middle class, with 34 representing Americans making $30,000 to $80,000 per year.
She also looks into race and gender:
White women would elect the biggest group of senators -- 37 of them, though only 38 women have ever served in the Senate, with 17 currently in office. White men would have 36 seats. Black women, Hispanic women and Hispanic men would have six each; black men five; and Asian women and men two each.
Her theory is based on the fact that the structure of United States Senate is completely -- for lack of a more appropriate, but less unsophisticated word -- ridiculous. According to Senate historian Donald Ritchie, "[h]alf of the population of the nation lives in 10 states, which have 20 senators. The other half lives in 40 states that have 80 senators." Make sense?

For example, California has two senators. California has a population of almost 37,000,000 people, which means one senator per 18.5 million constituents. Wyoming, however, has a population of less than 550,000 citizens -- yet are still represented by two Senators -- so that gives each senator approximately 275,000 constituents. Just that mild difference of 18,225,000 people with the same senatorial representation. No big deal.

Even though it doesn't make as much sense to do this state-wide rather than nationally -- just for fun -- let's look at this in terms of Pennsylvania. We've got 50 state senators in PA, so let's assume that we'll still have 50 state senators representing us in our new statistically-based democracy.

(Note: These assumptions are based off of the Census Bureau's Pennsylvania data from 2008. Income estimates are based on 2008 inflation-adjusted dollars. Demographic estimates are also from 2008, but do not specify things, for example, like "white women," things are broken down solely as "white" and "women," so there is a decent amount of assumption taking place.)

Hopefully, Ms. Lowrey won't mind me playing Mad Libs with her statistics.

Based on household income:
  • Two senators would represent Pennsylvanians earning $200,000 or more per year;
  • Fourteen senators would represent incomes of Pennsylvanians from $75,000 to $200,000;
  • Twelve senators would represent Pennsylvanians who make less than $25,000 a year (an amount below the federal poverty line for families);
  • And the bulk of the senators would work on behalf of the middle class, with Twenty-two of them representing Pennsylvanians making $25,000 to $75,000 per year.
Based on race and gender:
  • White women would take up the biggest portion, almost half, with twenty-two Pennsylvania senators;
  • White men come in a close second at twenty senators from Pennsylvania;
  • Black women and black men from Pennsylvania would have three senators each;
  • Latino women and men from Pennsylvania would have one senator each;
  • And any men and women that are Asian, American Indian, Pacific Islander, or any other race would not be represented, since their totals do not get to 2% of 50 -- which is what would be necessary to acquire one senator.
Any way you look at it, agree or disagree, different ways of breaking up the Senate would certainly be interesting.

22 comments:

Anonymous said...

Why are progressive liberals so obsessed with breaking everything down into race and gender all the time?

Quotas never work out, do they?

BTW - How about a report breaking down player demographics for the National Basketball Association or National Football League?

Jon Geeting said...

Because if you look at the numbers, it's pretty clear we have a political system disproportionately dominated by older white men, which in turn produces policy outcomes disproportionately favorable to the interests of older white men. And since those older white men do not make up anything even remotely resembling a majority of the country, it stands to reason that getting representation in our governing bodies to more closely approximate America's actual demographic composition will result in policy outcomes that more accurately reflect what Americans want. Why are conservatives so obsessed with preserving a system that unduly elevates the interests of one demographic group above all others?

Capri said...

I hate congress so it seems strange for me to stand up to the structure but this:

Her theory is based on the fact that the structure of United States Senate is completely -- for lack of a more appropriate, but less unsophisticated word -- ridiculous. According to Senate historian Donald Ritchie, "[h]alf of the population of the nation lives in 10 states, which have 20 senators. The other half lives in 40 states that have 80 senators." Make sense?

is why the House of Representatives is constituted by population (or supposed to be). So, its not like no one thought about this before.

Ryan O'Donnell said...

The fact that the House of Representatives makes sense doesn't make up for the fact that the Senate doesn't.

Capri said...

the point of the senate being structured with even representation by the states is to protect states with small populations from being completely shut out of policy decisions. Though I think that many things about congress need to change, to me, it makes good sense to have one branch of congress that serves the needs of the people by population and another that serves the needs of the people by geography. Now, if only either branch would get around to the serving the needs of the people part...

Donald Dal Maso said...

Jon's paragraph above is an excellent and well-focused summary of the facts, along with additional fundamental question about what conservatives really want. Jon I'm grateful you used the phrase "older white men" rather than "STUPID older white men" simply because the latter phrase would involve personal opinion--no matter how likely that it also really is true.

Anonymous said...

Jon, the stats are what they are - so why aren't more diverse people elected just as a matter of due course? To me this is not a legislative issue - run a race and get elected, simple as that.

I'm in favor of term limits by the way which would help. In addition to fresh ideas and energy, it offends me to no end that people can make a career out of being politicians instead of actually working for a living, and that I have to pay them for it.

And Ryan, I disagree - the balance of the House and Senate makes perfect sense. The framework of the Federal government is based on checks and balances. The way the House and Senate are structured balances population and geography. All of these checks/balances are important to who we are so that all citizens are fairly represented.

The Banker

Anonymous said...

And frankly, seeing how poorly NY and California are run, the last thing in the world I would want is for those two states to have more influence. Our country wouldn't survive it.

The Banker

Capri said...

Banker, I'm with you. In New Hampshire, the state legislators are elected to two year terms, and paid $200 for their service. The 424 members of the state house & senate make up the fourth largest english-speaking legislative body in the world, with a representation ratio of roughly 1 to 3000.

Also notable, over 150 of the representatives are women, which is a hell of a lot better than PA or the US could say for gender diversity. New Hampshire isn't exactly a beacon of racial diversity, so I don't suspect the legislature is either, but I found this statistic interesting.

Jon Geeting said...

I take issue with the idea that there's a need for a geographical check, and even that bicameralism in general is necessary. The House seems to be functioning rather well, while the Senate is clearly not. These concepts were put in place when there were 13 states. The framers certainly did not foresee a situation in which, for instance, largely empty North and South Dakota would choose to form two states instead of one explicitly for the purpose of doubling their representation in the Senate. The effect is for 20% of the population to have veto power over the other 80%. That is insane.

I also think it's pointless to have this debate in terms of "what the Framers would have wanted." That was 200 years ago and doesn't relate at all to modern governance. It doesn't work, and we should change it.

Also, on the topic of term limits, look how well that's working out in California, where Arnold is the longest-serving politician in the state, presiding over a crisis that nobody has any expertise over because none of them have been there more than 6 years. A third have been there for only 2 years. That strikes me as a recipe for disaster. Legislating requires relationship-building and learning about the issues in depth. You can't just walk in off the street and understand intuitively how to be a legislator even if you're someone who's especially well-informed.

That's not to say there aren't drawbacks to longer terms of public service, but in my opinion, a situation where the government is run by novices and no one is around long enough to truly get their bearings or feel any ownership of the institution is far worse. If people are worried about corruption, and they should be, look at campaign finance rules and greater transparency requirements. We are not even close to exhausting the possibilities of what can be done with those tools.

Anonymous said...

Jon, let me ask a question on representation - should California and New York (I'm just picking on them because their populations are large) have the right to rape the natural resources of Wyoming, Colorado, and other less populated states simply because they have a smaller population?

If you had a Congress in place that favored unchecked logging, mining, etc., Wyoming would have no ability to defend itself because under your plan its representation would be decimated. If that were the case you would be (rightly) screaming for it to stop.

This is just one example to show that geography matters and needs to be represented just as populations do. Another example is water rights. Balance is the key and I think we have it.

I also think the House and Senate are both dysfunctional, but that's a discussion for another day.

My counter to your California example on term limits is to point to New York. What a disaster, and a big part of it are politicians with effective lfietime tenure - they can do anything they want and there are no consequences (Monserrate and Espada are classic examples on a state level). I'd say set limits of 2 terms for Senators and 6 terms for House members, and stagger them so not too much experience is lost at once. 12 years in that office is long enough in my opinion.

Campaign finance and transparency are good places to go as long as they're serious (which I always doubt).

The Banker

Ryan O'Donnell said...

I cannot accept basis that the Senate's idiotic rules are feasible, solely because the House's make sense. It is outdated, and with anything outdated, it needs to change.

However, I would not be anywhere near as opposed to the Senate's procedure if the filibuster were done away with. And the majority of the power in the two chambers shifted to the House. At least the House is proportional; there's no reason why Senate should hold so much jurisdiction over the country's future when it literally can't function.

And as for term limits, I'm with Jon. I want new blood in there too most of the time, but they have the ability to get voted out. Much like filibuster-removal mostly fixing the dire problems of the Senate, I think true campaign finance reform and actual transparency is the way to take a good chunk out of the corruption in Washington, much more than term limits would. I think some cap might be beneficial, but we really do need experienced legislators somewhere in congress -- and they can't just be aides.

Capri said...

Ryan, I think you and Jon are the only ones making the argument that the House works... I think they're both broken, and there are structural issues in both places, but having a geographically representative body of the legislature isn't a big problem, IMO. It certainly isn't a problem the way that the filibuster, or campaign contributions are a problem. I was reading about secret holds this week (they came up in conversation about the absolutely horrid move by Richard Shelby to hold the judicial confirmations hostage over totally unrelated earmarked spending). The idea that a senator can anonymously hold a bill from going out of committee onto the floor for a vote and never face repercussions is UNbelievable to me. These are examples, to me, of how backwards the Senate is, and I don't think geography is to blame.

Ryan O'Donnell said...

I know what you're saying. And I don't think that the House is perfect; I just think it's works fundamentally better than the Senate does.

Having a Senate based on geography is stupid; I don't know if there's any denying that. But, like I said before, if the actual rules of the Senate were fixed, I would have infinitely less of a problem with it being broken down geographically -- especially if the power was shifted back to the House.

The House has elections every two years, and it's broken down by district. It, at least, tries to actually represent its people and gives us the opportunity to throw somebody out every other year.

I also think there's a case to be made, for all of the "founding father people" out there, that the House was meant be the stronger chamber.

Anonymous said...

Ryan, I'd love to hear your case that the House should be stronger than the Senate. I don't think it's there.

Checks and Balances my friend.

The Banker

Ryan O'Donnell said...

Banker,

At least give me a chance before accusing me of not having any reasoning!

I base most of my work off of Mann, Ornstein, and Klein:

The Speaker of the House is the first government official mentioned in the Constitution. Even though the practical reality is that the Speaker is selected by the majority party from its ranks and is its leader, the Speaker is elected by a vote of the whole House and is supposed to represent the whole House. Underscoring their desire to have a speaker above normal party politics, the framers established that the Speaker does not even have to be a member of the House.

The legislative branch is the first branch mentioned in the Constitution, and the powers of the House are outlined before the Senate is even discussed.

Some scholars of this stuff will tell you that the Founders meant for Congress to be more powerful than the president and the House to be more powerful than the Senate. The proof is in the pudding, or at least in the Constitution: Congress can write and pass legislation, while the president can merely veto, and his veto can be overridden. "All bills for raising Revenue" must originate in the House, while the Senate doesn't get a special power of its own.

The hierarchy is pretty clear, and makes sense: The House is, after all, the most democratic body in our government.

Anonymous said...

Hey Ryan, I did want to give you a chance, that's why I asked!

Reading your post, it strikes me that you start out by taking a 'strict constructionist' approach to the Constitution, in particular as to the House. If so, then wouldn't that line of reasoning apply to the entire body of the document, including the exact wording of Section 3?

And when you read the entire document, the 'checks and balances' are particularly striking, with some powers (as you've noted) reserved for the House, and some for the Senate.

After this strict view, you then move to intent. But the words of the document are pretty clear, I'm not sure how intent can be framed in a way that's contrary to the words.

I also firmly believe in equal representation of all citizens. Your plan would elevate citizens in high population states at the expense of citizens in low population states. That's not fair.

And did you ever notice that in Section 1 of the Constitution the Senate is mentioned before the House?

I'm sorry, but I don't see the case here for elevating the House.

The Banker

Ryan O'Donnell said...

Banker,

Quick question.

Have you seen the Senate? Case rested.

I am putting a personal, one-person hold on all of your responses until you agree with me.

Anonymous said...

Ouch!

I've seen the Senate, it's dysfunctional. No argument.

Here's where we differ though:
So is the House. So is the EPA. So is Justice. So are all the other agencies, politicians, legislators, bureaucrats, aides, hangers on, groupies, and anyone else connected with anything in that sewer known as our Nation's Capitol. And all of these have been dysfunctional for years, this is not a D/R thing, it is a bipartisan abomination against humanity.

So there!

The Banker

Ryan O'Donnell said...

Haha I agree!

But I would never say the House is functional. The Senate is just so much more dysfunctional that it's almost unwatchable.

And that's my point. Even though there are serious problems with the House, you can barely even compare them to the Senate.

For example, in the House, one person cannot put a hold on 70 presidential nominees, because they're pissed about not getting an earmark.

Capri said...

Ryan, here is a great article from The Atlantic, by James Fallows - He agrees with you:

http://www.theatlantic.com/doc/201001/american-decline

Anonymous said...

No argument on Shelby doing what he did, it's wrong. but Obama has a way to deal with it - recess appointments. There was a good article on Newsweek's website about what's been happening on appointments -

http://www.newsweek.com/id/233295

But the crux of my argument is you can't fix what's wrong down there by changing the Constitution and demoting the Senate.

The Banker