Bits and Bobs: Rain Really?

Happy Thursday y'all!

• Senators Ron Wyden and Judd Gregg came out with a tax reform bill with an awesome feature that could put H&R Block and TurboTax out of business. Which is a good thing.

• Bigot wingnut Daryl Metcalfe snuck into the Lieutenant Governor's race somehow.

• Credit where it's due - State Senator Pat Browne's (R-Lehigh) idea for an Independent Fiscal Office is really good, and Mary Soderberg is totally wrong. This is a good government issue. The more good data the government has from independent disinterested sources, the better.

• Speaking of data, influential information designer Edward Tufte is helping the Obama administration present stimulus data in a way that is easy to understand. This is another good government issue I think is important. Transparency is not just about releasing spreadsheets and data sets. It's about organizing budget information in a way that helps people put things in perspective.

• I do not like Pat Browne's proposal to make Pennsylvania the first state to have a state firearm.

• Voltaix is a good score for the Slate Belt, considering the fast-growing markets they serve - semiconductors and solar.

• Many states are basically gambling with their pension funds. I want to hear more specifics from the Gubernatorial candidates.

Primary Ballots are Shaping Up

While the petition period for independent and non-major party candidates is just getting underway, the bulk of the primary ballot is now set in Pennsylvania.

You can click on the link marked "2010 Candidate List" on this page for a .pdf version of the full 65-page list of successful petitioners in the Commonwealth. In a hurry? John Micek at the Morning Call has a comprehensive listing of elections of regional interest.

A few highlights:

• Bob Mensch, who won the special election in the 24th state senate district last fall, will be challenged by Northampton County teacher Bill Wallace in the general election. Both are unopposed in their primaries. Wallace doesn't appear to have his website up yet.
• Republican Karen Beyer faces a primary challenge from Justin J. Simmons of Upper Saucon Township, who may have a web site, but I can't find it.
• Republican Doug Reichley is facing first-time candidate Democrat Patrick J. Slattery in the 134th district. Slattery has been gearing up for this run for about a year now and is an extremely hard worker. We'll be keeping a close eye on this race here.
• Mathew Benol managed to get enough signatures to be placed on the Republican ballot in the PA-15 Congressional race. This means Charlie Dent will have to first get past Benol before running against Callahan and Towne in the general. Under normal circumstances, I wouldn't imagine this would be a problem, but 2010 hasn't really been very normal so far, so who knows?

Primary election day is Tuesday May 18th.

Grassroots Efforts to Increase School Funding on the Rise

With friends all over the country, I'm starting to witness a trend in my facebook feed: parents and other property owners are rising up and demanding that someone raise their taxes!

Yes, you read that right. Across the nation, grassroots efforts aimed at increasing taxes to support public schools are taking hold.

From the state of Oregon to Lakewood, Ohio, to Albermarle County, Virginia, people are realizing that fully funding public schools benefits not only their children, but also their property values. They are seeing the long-term implications of underfunded schools. They are literally campaigning to tax themselves more.

The efforts aren't confined to well-to-do enclaves, either. Lakewood is a middle-working class suburb of Cleveland, a city in a state whose struggles are worse than ours here in Pennsylvania. The state of Oregon includes liberal towns like Portland, but also includes more conservative and rural areas like Madras.

It's refreshing to see citizens taking the longer view and understanding the investment represented in school taxes. Will we see a similar groundswell here?

Bethlehem Superintendent Search Update

Yesterday was the final day to submit applications for consideration in the Bethlehem Area School District, and according to Sara Satullo of the Express-Times, at least 30 educational professionals have done so.

The search firm hired to assist the school board conducted focus groups with a dozen community groups. The feedback from these groups is being integrated into the interview and hiring process. Not surprisingly, the chief concern of Bethlehem citizens is finding a leader who can help guide the district out of its precarious financial situation.

Speaking as a BASD resident, parent and taxpayer, I want to especially highlight the fact that the openness of this process is a direct result of citizen involvement. Without these efforts, the search might have gone on in the usual manner, with little input from taxpayers.

It took an enormous financial crisis and the threat of draconian budget cuts to wake folks up to the fact that the district needed us. Now, with our children and our money in their hands, the Bethlehem Area School Board and the new Superintendent will know they work for us. Going forward after the hire, we can't let them forget that.

Callahan Makes Red to Blue List

The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee will unveil its first list of "Red to Blue" candidates for the 2010 cycle today, and Bethlehem Mayor John Callahan is on it. CQ Politics reports:

According to the committee, candidates selected for the program this cycle must surpass “demanding fundraising goals” and demonstrate their political abilities before making the list. But now that these Democrats are in the program, the committee offers them financial, communication, grass-roots and strategic support.

Two Pennsylvania representatives, Patrick Murphy and Allyson Schwartz, will be among the co-chairs of the effort. The full list of 13 candidates includes one other Pennsylvania race, PA-07, where Bryan Lentz is working to retain Joe Sestak's seat. Sestak is giving up that seat to challenge Arlen Specter in the Democratic primary.

Marijuana Reform and the State Budget

USA Today has a good article on the growing number of states reconsidering the prevailing criminal justice approach to curbing the medical and recreational use of marijuana. The issue seems to be nearing a tipping point, based in good part on generational momentum.

The argument state legislators seem to be finding most persuasive is relief for state budgets:

Now California's Legislature is considering a bill that would make it the first state to legalize marijuana for recreational use as well. It is unlikely to pass this year, but Gray and other advocates hope to have a proposition on the November ballot that would legalize marijuana use for anyone 21 or older. California would levy taxes that the state tax board says could raise $1.3 billion or more a year for the deficit-plagued state, while saving tens of millions in prison and law-enforcement costs. Sponsors of the ballot issue have turned in 690,161 signatures on petitions for verification, far more than the 433,971 valid signatures required to get on the ballot.

Obviously there are many factors that make California unique, and most states would not see the same amount of revenue. In fact it seems likely that professionalization of the trade would push the cost of marijuana below current street prices. But even a gain of half a billion dollars in revenue would be a huge relief for the state.

Apart from allowing states to collect taxes (at the high level of alcohol and cigarettes) there would presumably be several other fiscal benefits. For instance, the policy would place less of a burden on scarce law enforcement resources, and would decrease the prison population.

At a time when states are putting every possible revenue-raising strategy on the table to prevent draconian budget cuts, it seems to me that the state doesn't have anything to lose by skipping over the "medical" placeholder law and opting for a tax-and-regulate approach. What would happen if Pennsylvania became the first state in the country to tax and regulate marijuana for recreational use? Imagine the level of investment that would pour into the state, particularly in regions with great agricultural capacity.

Wagner's Lonely Support for a Constitutional Convention

Gubernatorial hopeful Jack Wagner is shaking up an otherwise sleepy race, becoming the first candidate to call for a Constitutional Convention, and seizing the good-government mantle:

During an appearance on a Sunday morning political talk show on Pittsburgh's KDKA-TV, Mr. Wagner responded to a question by saying a constitutional convention is the best way to involve the citizens in creating necessary reform.

"Having a review by the public of how this government functions is a good thing, and that's what a constitutional convention is all about," said Mr. Wagner on Monday. "State government needs structural reform, that's what the people are saying and I hear it everywhere I go."

Limiting the size the state legislature and changing rules governing redistricting are the major constitutional issues that Mr. Wagner said citizens are concerned about. He was reluctant to discuss the specifics of a convention, such as how delegates would be selected or what role the General Assembly would play in the process.

While his prescriptions are pretty vague, the possibility that this could become a major election issue is encouraging. Wagner's ideas to shrink the legislature and reform the redistricting process are largely in line with changes I have previously argued for in this space.

There's more...

The Convention should aim to reduce the number of elected officials that citizens have to monitor, preferably to a unicameral legislature such as William Penn originally intended. Accountability requires that voters be able to draw a direct line between electoral outcomes and policy outcomes. That's much easier when they have fewer politicians to keep track of.

It should also establish an independent redistricting body that is tasked with balancing the twin goals of equal representation and maximally competitive elections. The current system where the incumbent politicians get to draw their own districts is a recipe for dysfunction.

And finally, it should scrap the system of judicial elections for a merit-based system of appointments. The urgent need for an independent judiciary was underscored by an American Judicature Society study which revealed that 2/3
of civil litigants who appeared before the PA Supreme Court last year had donated to at least one of the justices.

Whether these donations actually altered outcomes in these cases is immaterial. The perception of corruption alone is sufficient to undermine the integrity of the institution. A working legal system depends heavily on the popular perception of a fair process.

Since the candidates are all still in the stage of the campaign where they're trying to figure out what issues are important to people, it's a great time for people who want to see a Constitutional Convention to be pushing this issue to the campaigns. Make sure they know you care about this. Call or email them, or better yet, go talk to them at their public appearances.

Polar Opposite Polls

David Jarman, The Numerologist at Salon.com, has a post today about Arlen Specter's chances of getting re-elected this year that confirms our thoughts about the polling at this point:

Arlen Specter is stuck in a deep hole as he seeks a sixth term in the U.S. Senate. No, wait -- he’s actually in decent shape, running ahead of his potential Republican opponent. Both of these statements are actually supported by the numbers. It just depends which pollster you believe.

Jarman compares the results of the "likely" versus "registered" voters polled by Rassmussen and Quinnipiac, and then throws in F&M's poll for good measure. F&M seems to confirm the Ras and Quinn polls:

F&M offered both likely voter and registered voter models, and found Specter leading Toomey 44-40 percent among the broad pool of registered voters, and Toomey ahead of Specter 44-34 percent among the narrower likely voter pool.

Democrats need to be looking at these polls as they head into the primary voting booth to choose between Specter and Sestak. If ever a primary was about electability, this one is it.

Good News On the Valley Job Front

Gregory Karp is reporting that the Manpower survey shows promising signs for job-seekers in the Lehigh Valley.

From April to June, 13 percent of Lehigh Valley companies interviewed by staffing service Manpower Inc. said they plan to hire more employees. Just 2 percent of companies expected to reduce payrolls.

That's a dramatic turnaround from the previous survey. It found 10 percent of companies planned to hire while 12 percent planned staff cutbacks.

This is obviously welcome news. In a related story, the Senate will soon vote on the extension of unemployment benefits that was blocked last week by Kentucky Republican Senator Jim Bunning. That bill now contains a range of tax cuts and incentives, as well as the "Doc Fix" for Medicare that prevents the program from implementing cuts in reimbursements to doctors.

This bill offsets some of its cost by closing tax loopholes. By providing extended financial support for people who have been unemployed a for a long time, it helps keep consumer demand up since nearly 100% of those dollars will wind up back in the economy in the form of purchases of goods and services.

Bits and Bobs: "More Scrutiny of Budget Spin, Please" Edition

Pretty slow news day today. Some dusty stories here from over the weekend too:

• Gubernatorial candidates discuss the looming pension crisis. All candidates admit the need to make some tough choices, except Tom Corbett, who only mentions the low-hanging fruit of changing the vesting age - about 1/10th of 1% of the problem. Courageous!

• Ed Rendell also had a laugh at Tom Corbett over his no-tax pledge, saying he "needs to have his head examined." He also challenges the media to ask Corbett, and others who would slash the budget without raising new revenue, what specific programs they want to cut and what the effects will be. I hope reporters will ask all the candidates whether they support all the exemptions in the current tax code.

• This story on the Americus hotel describes an interesting carrot-and-stick strategy for improving blighted properties in Allentown. Are Bethlehem and Easton doing anything similar?

• Politico has a piece on Tea Party candidates falling short in elections. I've been making this argument for a while, and I guess we'll see if I'm right in November, but I really just don't see any way to keep growing the Tea Party beyond the small core of people who are currently interested in it. It's not like there's a coherent common worldview there beyond inchoate anger at the government. You hear a lot about cutting spending, but when even self-identified conservatives voters are asked what they want to cut, it turns out they love all categories of Big Government spending. Again, reporters should make sure to ask candidates what specific programs they want to see cut.

Bits and Bobs: Weekend News Round-Up

Hope everyone got a chance to get out and enjoy the beautiful weather this weekend. Lots of topics here to discuss in the comments.

• In response to a boomlet of civil rights abuses, most notably the odious Illegal Immigration Relief Act promoted by racist demagogue Lou Barletta, the ACLU has opened a regional office in Allentown.

• Arlen Specter still won't renounce his support for a massive redistribution of wealth from the middle class to the wealthy, and thinks that people making 40K should pay the same tax rate as Paris Hilton. What makes the tax code complicated isn't its progressive structure - it's the unclear definition of the tax base.

• Chris Casey has some good observations about Joe Sestak's appearance at the Lehigh County Democrats Committee meeting.

• Gov. Ed Rendell made a stop in Allentown to talk about his budget, as one of a series of appearances around the state. He answered some questions for the Steve Esack of the Morning Call about education.

• Paul Muschick has a good piece on shady dealings in the insurance market for limited medical-benefit plans. These practices will be regulated out of existence when the health care bill passes.

• Missed this last week: Philadelphia Inquirer editorial board has some good ideas for reforming PA's redistricting process, to make elections more competitive. The bill recently introduced by Babette Josephs (D-Philadelphia) is pretty weak. I would like to see a Constitutional amendment entrusting this process to a non-partisan board.

• The decline in homeownership nationally is in part driven by a generational shift toward renting, which makes a lot of sense - Millenials put a high premium on mobility. How will this trend affect property taxes?

• I wonder what fiscal conservatives think about this sort of thing. I get that conservatives are very opposed to spending taxpayer money on things where there's a net loss of money, but what about spending on upgrades that will save money, and so will pay for themselves? Do conservatives think this category of spending is justified?

• And don't miss this real treat of a Southside Bethlehem history lesson from Stephen Antalics. Does someone have contact info for Stephen?

Stimulus Watch: Fighting Homelessness

Scott Kraus at The Morning Call continues to follow the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act's impact on the Lehigh Valley:

The federal government announced more than a year ago that $3 million in stimulus dollars were headed to the Lehigh Valley to prevent and reverse homelessness.

That money is just beginning to make its way into the local economy in the form of emergency rent and utility payments to help the newly unemployed avoid eviction or get off the streets.

Federal funds always tend to arrive more slowly than folks would like, but they are arriving. Allentown's Commission on Ending Chronic Homelessness is working to publicize the new resources available, while governments and organizations across Lehigh and Northampton County are accessing the money. There are pots of money for emergency re-housing, for covering rent and utilities on a short-term basis and for employment counseling. It seems like a comprehensive approach that recognizes that people can be in crisis for a short amount of time, may just need a little assist to bridge a tough time, or may need a deeper level of support to pave the way to self-sufficiency.

Remember, you can always track stimulus funding at Recovery.gov

Northampton Council Plays Hardball With Sands

Props to Northampton County Council for doing what we urged Bethlehem City Council to do - hold the license renewal over Adelson's head until Sands resumes construction.

There's no point in reserving your leverage. When you have the upper hand, you press your advantage.

NOW Backs Sestak

This is quite the coup for Joe Sestak:

The National Organization for Women has taken sides in the Pennsylvania Senate race. The Philadelphia Inquirer reports that NOW will back Rep. Joe Sestak in the Democratic primary which pits him against Sen. Arlen Specter.

According to the paper's interviews with officials from the organization, NOW made its decision "after two interviews and on the strong recommendation of the state leadership of the organization." NOW says Sestak's "support of workplace equality for women and for gay rights" led to its decision to support support his Senate campaign in 2010.

Until now (heh) no major national progressive organizations have publicly taken sides in the PA Democratic primary. Predictably, the state and local parties have all dutifully lined up behind Specter, but the advocacy groups have remained tight-lipped about who they're backing.

I'm not one who puts any stock in endorsements, especially in a high profile race like this. When was the last time you decided who to vote for based on an endorsement? But it's interesting because it shows how much distrust there is of Specter among the considerable swath of the electorate to his left.

Midterm elections are all about base turnout, and that dynamic is even more pronounced in primary contests. The composition of the electorate Specter will have to win over will certainly contain a higher proportion of partisan high-information voters than would be the case in a higher-turnout election year. And among those who know both candidates, Sestak leads 54-37.

Nobel economist Elinor Ostrum at Lafayette College

Michael Duck at the Valley 610 blog has an excellent post on a discussion he had with Nobel laureate Elinor Ostrum, who just visited Lafayette College, on the topic of economies of scale and local governance.  There's lots of good material here, but I thought this part about regional institutions was especially interesting:

My ears perked up when she mentioned her observations apply to local government resources, too — I am a local government reporter, after all. But Ostrum has far more experience examining these issues than I do: She told me she spent 15 years researching urban policing.

"There are not economies of scale for all policing," she said. "Small to medium sized police departments are able to provide citizens better direct services — [such as] patrols, immediate response — than large consolidated ones."

But she's not trying to say every little hamlet should just go it alone, because on the other hand there are some things the big guys do better and can better afford: There are economies of scale when it comes to things like crime labs and dispatching centers, she said.

The solution? "Break it up," she said. "Don't think that everything called 'policing' has to be done by the same agency."

I think this reasoning bears out what advocates have been saying about the merits of a bi-county health department and a regional crime data center.  It sounds to me like a key distinction is that its possible to achieve economies of scale by consolidating administrative functions and planning on the back end, but that a more decentralized approach is better suited to on-the-ground operations.

There are plenty more fascinating observations worth discussing here, so go read the whole thing.